TIME: Almanac 1993/TIME Almanac 1993.iso/time/061890/0618104.000

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                                                                                NATION, Page 22

THE POLITICAL INTEREST

Searching for Cuba Libre


By Michael Kramer


    Since the Bay of Pigs, Cuban Americans have dreamed of
dancing on Fidel Castro's grave. They believe in their bones
that nothing good will come in Cuba while Castro lives. But all
that may soon be history. A week before the Bush-Gorbachev
summit, a meeting of far greater significance for Latin America
took place in Miami. For the first time in public, Soviet
diplomats (including Yuri Pavlov, the Kremlin's leading
Latinist) met with Cuban-American leaders. "We are accommodating
political reality," says a Soviet official. "Bush will remain
hostile toward Castro until the Cuban-American community
blesses a change."

    And nothing about Moscow's Cuba policy will change until
Washington's does. Castro's disdain for perestroika is well
known, but the Soviet subsidy of Cuba continues unabated at
between $3 billion and $6 billion annually, depending on who
is counting. "We have conservatives too," explains the
Kremlin's Deputy Foreign Minister, Viktor Komplektov. "There
is so much else to push that it is simply easier to avoid a
fight with those who idolize Fidel." With Gorbachev thus
constrained, the path to perestroika in Havana runs through
Washington. "Talk to the Cubans," Gorbachev has told Bush.
"Something can be worked out. Castro can be a good partner, if
only you give him the chance."

    To date, the Administration's response has been consistently
negative. "We won't talk to Castro until his behavior changes,"
Secretary of State James Baker reiterated recently to Soviet
Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze. "Or until the Cuban
Americans say different," says a White House aide, echoing
Moscow's appraisal of U.S. politics.

    "Well," says Jorge Mas, a millionaire Miami businessman who
chairs the powerful Cuban American National Foundation, "it may
finally be time to say different. With the Soviets recognizing
us as key to a resolution before Castro is gone, testing
Gorbachev's reasoning may be risk-free." Cuban Americans even
more conservative than Mas oppose any conciliatory gesture, but
if Mas' view prevails, an early probe could involve TV Marti,
the Florida-based television station that began beaming
American programming to Cuba last March. Radio Marti, which has
penetrated Cuba for more than five years, has given Castro
fits. TV Marti is "driving him even crazier," says Pavlov. As
the father of both media moves, Mas sees TV Marti as a
potential bargaining chip -- "like the way the U.S. used the
placement of Pershing II missiles in Europe as leverage to
force the [intermediate-range nuclear forces] treaty."

    Would Castro moderate his hard line in exchange for an end
to TV Marti, or a relaxation of the U.S. trade embargo of Cuba?
"Unless Fidel believes we will actually walk away if he doesn't
deal, he won't deal," says a Soviet diplomat. "And he is
nowhere close to thinking that." Castro knows that Cuba is for
Gorbachev what abortion is for Bush -- a touchstone issue for
core conservatives. But "responsible people are increasingly
upset about subsidizing a man who thumbs his nose at us," says
a Soviet official. "If Gorbachev decides to take on the
conservatives over Castro, and the Cuban-American community
signals Bush that he can turn U.S. policy, then all the elements
will be there."

    In theory, Castro sees himself as the Last Communist. A
short time ago, his brother and presumed heir Raul told a
Moscow audience that before abandoning Marxism-Leninism, the
Castros will see their nation at the bottom of the Atlantic.
According to a Gorbachev adviser, no one thought Raul was
joking.